{"id":1049,"date":"2019-04-18T14:52:27","date_gmt":"2019-04-18T14:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/neweverythink.com\/?p=1049"},"modified":"2020-07-21T11:57:36","modified_gmt":"2020-07-21T11:57:36","slug":"gelecegi-ongormek-teknoloji-yakinsamasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neweverythink.com\/?p=1049","title":{"rendered":"Gelece\u011fi \u00d6ng\u00f6rmek &#8211; Teknoloji Yak\u0131nsamas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1052\" src=\"http:\/\/neweverythink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/deep_dive.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"5441\" height=\"2323\" srcset=\"https:\/\/neweverythink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/deep_dive.jpg 5441w, https:\/\/neweverythink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/deep_dive-150x64.jpg 150w, https:\/\/neweverythink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/deep_dive-624x266.jpg 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5441px) 100vw, 5441px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek, giderek daha zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Muazzam h\u0131z ve m\u00fcthi\u015f \u00fcretime kar\u015f\u0131n, yeni teknolojilerin maliyet evrimleri ve di\u011fer teknolojilerle ko\u015fut geli\u015fimleri bize sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck yeni \u015fey hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli fikir verebilir. <\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">1900 y\u0131l\u0131 paskalyas\u0131nda, New York 5. Cadde\u2019de \u00e7ekilmi\u015f soldaki foto\u011frafta, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 dairenin i\u00e7indeki, \u00a0otomobil s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcs\u00fc, onca at arabas\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde \u201cSadece 13 y\u0131l sonra, bu caddede bir tane bile at arabas\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyeceksiniz!\u201d, ..dememi\u015ftir. Kesinlikle dememi\u015ftir, ama ger\u00e7ek ne yaz\u0131k ki b\u00f6yle olmu\u015f.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/HF3bTYmI5lDfJHEaZ4-41dL-VORo8D-b_DtszVfHeH5BQtpy_kc_APQrij1SZBRaMzyO-iT97eCi4B44Wkb8X--MWmX9aBCirTeFU9ZaFDhSOEmqzXzNBAJuKwEgp_dU2ubO-OC3\" width=\"602\" height=\"268\" \/><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Evet sadece 13 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde, \u00fcstelik petrol ve otomobil gibi 2 end\u00fcstriyi s\u0131f\u0131rdan yaratarak, yol a\u011f\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kurarak, bir i\u015f\u00e7i jenerasyonuna yepyeni yetkinlikler i\u00e7in e\u011fiterek, \u00fcretim band\u0131 gibi yeni end\u00fcstriyel s\u00fcre\u00e7ler icat ederek, araba kredisi ve kaskosu gibi yeni i\u015f modelleri ke\u015ffederek ve 1. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayarak caddede neredeyse hi\u00e7 at arabas\u0131 b\u0131rakmam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki teknoloji benimsenme e\u011frilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, belirgin bir S \u015feklinden giderek dikle\u015fen bir italik I \u015fekline do\u011fru evrim oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bunun anlam\u0131 teknoloji benimsenme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Amerikan evlerine elektri\u011fin girmesi 50 seneden uzun s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, bu s\u00fcre bilgisayar i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131l.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/d4uFk5SIm5wVV-19qAREpdFttHdLaA9qTO1tbNh1HcsFeO8mmg8SzooaADb-ED7xphJtLfsrmCejKV66crUHx2NuoG8k2UaLakk2Y6lw0xLsL4g5Am2JojdamYyq0shjNyJ74Ch3\" width=\"602\" height=\"428\" \/><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Kaynak: ourworldindata.com<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u00d6ncelikle, bir teknolojinin birim maliyetinin h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ona olan talebin kritik bir e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015febiliyor. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fda, bu kritik e\u015fi\u011fi tahmin etmek giderek daha zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir teknolojinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yerle\u015fik pazar ve \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lmas\u0131 an meselesi. Bu s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131ran 3 ana unsur var: Teknoloji maliyetinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00fcr\u00fcn inovasyonu ve yeni i\u015f modelleri.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 benimsenmenin ard\u0131ndaki ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 ne diye bakacak olursak; kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za b\u00fcy\u00fck h\u0131zla -ekponansiyel- d\u00fc\u015fen teknoloji maliyetleri \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130novasyonla az \u00e7ok ilgiliyseniz, Moore Kanununu da duymu\u015fsunuzdur. Gordon Moore taraf\u0131ndan ortaya konan Moore Kanunu, basit\u00e7e, yirmibirinci y\u00fczy\u0131l teknolojilerinin bel kemi\u011fi mikroi\u015flemcilerin i\u015flem kapasitelerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k her 2 y\u0131lda bir 2 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karken maliyetlerinin de yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yler. Moore kanunu birim i\u015flem maliyetinin her y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k %41,4 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/Yx5unF1cGj38x7Jhi04j8Liyj3Bj2oabuxq5eUQa4zXolWmeFpy0oqKTugoFwO8nHESH4WKZ0xXOxe5lkt0cTKd9a4pmOStN805vzTgtgt6s8__ksv9x7fk6StJy4sOFKRINtVFk\" width=\"602\" height=\"440\" \/><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Kaynak: Wikipedia<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Bu haliyle, bu g\u00fcne kadarki en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 teknolojik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc kanunu olagelen Moore Kanunu, tahmin edebilece\u011finiz gibi yaln\u0131z de\u011fil. \u00d6rne\u011fin, veri depolama maliyetlerini modelleyen Kryder Kanunu, bit ba\u015f\u0131na depolama maliyetinin ($\/bit) her 18 ayda %50 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcr. Benzer \u015fekilde Handy Kanunu, dijital g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclemede her dolar ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclenebilen piksel say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (piksel\/dolar) her y\u0131l %58 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcr. \u00d6te yandan, a\u011f kapasitesi yani bit ba\u015f\u0131na veri iletim maliyeti ($\/bit) her 9 ayda %50 azalmaktad\u0131r. Buna bir de her y\u0131l %20 d\u00fc\u015fen kWh ba\u015f\u0131na lityum iyon pil maliyetini de ekleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 neden anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 merak edenleriniz olmu\u015ftur. Alt alta yazal\u0131m: i\u015flemci h\u0131z\u0131, dijital g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleme, veri depolama, internet eri\u015fimi ve pil. Size bir \u015fey hat\u0131rlatt\u0131 m\u0131? Evet; tabii ki ak\u0131ll\u0131 telefon!<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda, dokunmatik ekran ve sens\u00f6rlerin de eklenmesiyle, yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m 5 teknolojinin birim maliyetleri \u00f6yle seviyelere d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ki Apple iPhone\u2019u eri\u015filebilir bir maliyetle piyasaya s\u00fcrebilmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131. 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda bunu yapamayabilirdi. \u0130\u015fte, birden fazla yeni teknolojinin maliyetinin, belli bir d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ferek, daha \u00f6nce hayal bile edilemeyen \u015feyleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lmas\u0131na, dahas\u0131 bunun kestirilebilmesine, \u00a0\u201cteknoloji yak\u0131nsamas\u0131\u201d deniyor.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde, m\u00fcthi\u015f bir h\u0131zla d\u00fcnyay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek yeni bir ak\u0131m g\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcnde geli\u015fiyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim de bir dizi ba\u015fka teknolojinin yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Sonraki yaz\u0131m 2021\u2019de d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131 iyiden iyiye etkilemeye ba\u015flayacak bu b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimle ilgili olacak.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Daha fazla bilgi, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, soru, G\u00f6r\u00fclecek \u0130\u015f Teorisi\u2019ne dayanan Sonu\u00e7 Odakl\u0131 \u0130novasyon (SON) y\u00f6ntemiyle stratejik inovasyon dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve inovasyon e\u011fitimleri i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.yenihersey.com\/\">www.yenihersey.com<\/a> ve emre@neweverythink.com<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/XD5tvM3ug_sI131vOdvix6PVgZN1PiALahnoqskWotp7CDp1GQf3HdZr6SGmzETAh2c-caWtaQDOlxJ4QysTOczYfd6YgSmStaRCqDV5XqnP4bxc8nUgeNfaSjej0jLV7es0Dg9w\" width=\"149\" height=\"112\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"wp-ulike-1049\" class=\"wpulike wpulike-default\" ><div class=\"counter\"><a data-ulike-id=\"1049\" data-ulike-type=\"likeThis\" data-ulike-status=\"3\" class=\"wp_ulike_btn image\"><\/a><span class=\"count-box\">0<\/span><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek, giderek daha zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Muazzam h\u0131z ve m\u00fcthi\u015f \u00fcretime kar\u015f\u0131n, yeni teknolojilerin maliyet evrimleri ve di\u011fer teknolojilerle ko\u015fut geli\u015fimleri bize sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck yeni \u015fey hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli fikir verebilir. 1900 y\u0131l\u0131 paskalyas\u0131nda, New York 5. Cadde\u2019de \u00e7ekilmi\u015f soldaki foto\u011frafta, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 dairenin i\u00e7indeki, \u00a0otomobil s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcs\u00fc, onca at arabas\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde \u201cSadece 13 y\u0131l sonra, bu caddede bir [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,36,19,35],"tags":[38,14,40,37,39],"class_list":["post-1049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-emreozturkblog","category-gelecek","category-innovation","category-teknoloji","tag-gelecek","tag-inovasyon","tag-moore-kanunu","tag-teknoloji","tag-teknoloji-benimsenme-egrisi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Gelece\u011fi \u00d6ng\u00f6rmek - Teknoloji Yak\u0131nsamas\u0131<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek, giderek daha zorla\u015f\u0131yor. 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Ayn\u0131 zaman diliminde maliyeti m\u00fcthi\u015f ucuzlay\u0131p yak\u0131nsayan teknolojiler bu yolda bize yol g\u00f6sterebilir.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/neweverythink.com\/?p=1049","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Gelece\u011fi \u00d6ng\u00f6rmek - Teknoloji Yak\u0131nsamas\u0131","og_description":"Gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek, giderek daha zorla\u015f\u0131yor. 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